We're coming into the holidays and the Austin market continues to do some surprising things.
Austin solds are down year over year by 13.7%, whereas South Austin (South of 71) sales are also down but 6% year over year, much less than Austin itself. Even with the drop in sales activity, half of all active homes in South Austin sell in a month, so inventory is still extremely tight, leaving only two months of inventory down south.
Austin active listings are down year over year by 10.1%, whereas South Austin actives are up 6.2%.
So there remains less inventory to buy in Austin than there was last year, except in South Austin. The inventory of active listings is still increasing. This shows that homes are appreciating in South Austin and people are selling to cash out their equity. And people are buying one out of two homes that are being listed!!
Median Sales Price is up 4.6% year over year in Austin ($387,750), and the South Austin median sales price is up 6.8% ($335,000) which is $20,000 more than last month! That is a 6% increase in a single month. So you're getting more appreciation in South Austin which may have something to do with the inventory.
Out of 105 economists, market analysts, and real estate experts , only 1 expects prices will not appreciate in 2019. So Austin is matching the predictions in this case compared to national trends. We think that the housing market is simply going through a normal cycle and we are seeing slowing appreciation, but not a down turn yet. Everyone has 2008 on the brain and that is still fresh, but we aren't seeing surplus inventory, high levels of cash out refinancing or loose lending practices like we did during the crash.
Such a drastic down swing in the number of sold and active home listings suggests that October may have been unusually active, as the drop this month is significant. Some of this is seasonal as activity slows down in the winter, but those are big moves. It will be interesting to see how next month comes out. We will be sure to let you know.
We also put together buyer, seller, and investor guides if you want to learn more.