• Kameron Johnson

Austin Hot or Not - Market Update October 2019

Updated: Oct 15, 2019



Austin Market

In all of Austin this past month there were 1,970 active listings on the market. Compared to the month before that, the active listings in Austin are down by 10%. In south Austin there were 303 Active Listings on the market, about 16% less compared to the month before that. Austin is a hot city, and there are more people moving in, but inventory is limited.

The number of sold listings in Austin this past month was 888, 24% less than a month before, but still up almost 1% year over year. In south Austin there were 183 Sold Listings, almost 30% less than the previous month, however the number of sold listings in south Austin have increased by about 5% compared to last year. It is natural for the market to slow down around this time due to the summer rush ending and kids being beginning the new school year.


The median sales price for Austin as a whole this past month was $416,750, up about 0.5% compared to the month before. Compared to last year the median sales price for Austin is up by about 10%. South Austin's median sales price was $360,000, about 0.5% less than a month before but up about 8% compared to last year. The slight dip of price in south Austin is to be expected because there are many families who prefer to stay in the same school district and other factors such as the end of summer. The annual trend remains impressive.


National Market

Recession has been a popular topic of discussion for the past couple of months. Experts believe that the upcoming recession will not cause many challenges in the market, but it may cause concern. The likelihood of dramatic price changes occurring, similar to the recession in 2008, is very slim. The main cause of the recession in 2008 was a housing crash and a mortgage market meltdown. Inventory was high and lending standards were way too lose.



Experts are projecting that for the next several years, homes will appreciate going forward. In the past five recessions, home prices have appreciated three out of the five times, and aside from the housing crash in 2008, have only depreciated less than 2%. Homes will continue to appreciate, and experts project that within the next 12 months we may see appreciation value accelerate.



Affordability of a home is determined by three things, price, ability to earn, and interest rates. Interest rates are dropping and wages are increasing nationally, the potential earning is increasing. It is more affordable to buy a home today than it was before the housing crash in 2008. It may be the perfect time for first time home buyers, or anyone wanting to upgrade to their dream house.



Homes are only expected to appreciate in value, adding equity for the owner. A home purchased in January 2019 is expected to accumulate $37,750 in equity by January 2024 even with the scare of an upcoming recession. We suspect that the upcoming recession will most likely have little to no effect on the housing market. Trade policy, a potential stock market correction, or a geopolitical crisis will certainly be factors for any upcoming recession.


References:

1.) https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx

2.)www.freddiemac.com

3.)www.fanniemae.com

4.)www.nar.realtor/

5.)www.pulsenomics.com

6.)www.mba.org

7.)www.zelmanassociates.com

8.)https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/july-2019-housing-affordability-index

9.)https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/09/typical-mortgage-payment-us-homebuyers-committing-to-continues-to-dip-below-year-ago-levels.aspx

10.)https://www.corelogic.com/insights/homeowner-equity-report.asp

11.)https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx

12.)https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

13.)http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

14.)https://info.bankofamerica.com/homebuyers-report/

15.)https://www.corelogic.com/insights/home-price-index.aspx

16.)https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/08-21-2019/ask-the-economist-millennial-demand-and-affordability-issues

17.)https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

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