• Kameron Johnson

Austin Hot or Not - Market Update November 2019

Updated: Nov 22, 2019


Austin Market

In the entire city of Austin, there were 1,827 active listings in October. Typically this number exceeds 2,000! Given the city's continual population growth, that only means one thing for prices.


957 homes sold in October. That is just shy of 2 months of inventory. The number of sold listings this year in October decreased by about 3%. There just isn't as much to sell. Compared to south Austin there were 206 listings sold, almost all of the inventory available in south Austin for October was sold in a month!


The median price of a home in Austin for October was $420,000. That has crept up only 2% which I think is a good thing. Skyrocketing prices make people nervous and compared to other markets, Texas is less frothy. It is the one nice thing about property tax, it keeps a lid on real estate inflation even when supply is low. In south Austin the median price of homes was $358,500, also just a 2% bump year over year.


National Market

Over the last 3 months in the national market the housing supply year over year has been decreasing. This can potentially decrease sales, and accelerate pricing, shifting the market even more towards a sellers market. Moderate prices drive buyers to the market. Consumers believe there are more homes on the market in their area compared to the last year (not true in Austin), which can cause the seller to hold off on listing their home on the market and waiting until the spring.

The supply of inventory begins to increase in the new year, which later on could potentially lower the demand and increase competition. Most listings come on the market during the 2nd quarter of the year, April, May, and June. During this time, there will be more active listings on the market and competition will increase. Inventory levels in the 2nd quarter of the year increase, which gives buyers more options, and driving competition among sellers. The end of the 4th quarter and the beginning of 1st quarter is the sweet spot for sellers to list their home for maximum price and minimum hassle.

New build permits are up 7.7% over the last year, and many of those homes will be on the market this spring. Along with competition from other active listings going on the market, sellers will have to compete against new builds going on the market. Inventory of new homes is less than last year, but we will most likely see an increase in new home inventory in April, May and June.


As inventory shrinks and demand increases, we will continue to see some very interesting stats in the next couple of months. For sellers, waiting for the spring to list a home may not be the best decision. Many sellers enter the market in the spring, causing more competition from other sellers, as well as new construction entering the market. Buyers have more to choose from and can be more reserved when looking to buy a home.


References

1.) https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

2.) https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/home-seller-survey/?trk_location=ssrp&trk_query=home%20sellers&trk_page=1&trk_position=5

3.) https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

4.) https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-decrease-2-2-in-september

5.) http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

6.) https://www.showingtime.com/blog/september-2019-showing-index-results/?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=blog_digest

7.) https://news.move.com/2019-10-08-Housing-Trends-Foreshadow-Housing-Shortage-Ahead

8.)http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20190930_housing_strong_heading_into_fall.page

9.) http://eyeonhousing.org/2019/10/new-home-sales-remain-solid-in-september/

10.) http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2019-10-17-U-S-Housing-Inventory-Falls-to-New-Lows-After-Rebounding-Before-Home-Shopping-Season

11.) https://news.move.com/2019-10-31-U-S-Housing-Inventory-Tightens-as-Competition-Heats-Up

12.) http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resources/research/pdf/20190730-Forecast-02.pdf

13.) http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/

14.) http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

15.) www.pulsenomics.com

16.) www.mba.org

17.) www.freddiemac.com

18.) www.nar.realtor/

19.) www.fanniemae.com

20.) https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/the-marketpulse-vol-8-issue-9-september-2019-screen-092519.pdf

21.) https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx

22.) https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

23.) https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

24.) https://www.nreionline.com/technology/data-and-analytics-will-help-build-future-real-estate



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