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Austin Hot or Not - Market Update June 2019



Austin Market

One of our favorite marvel super heroes makes a cameo in this June market update. We are in the peak of the market for the year as home buyers scramble to get into a new home before school starts.

Austin active listings are down year over year in June by a whopping 18%, whereas South Austin actives are up 5% in the same time frame. Austin inventory is still shrinking overall while South Austin is adding inventory and the Austin numbers include the added inventory in the south, so it continues to shrink even faster in the rest of the city to make up for that number.


Austin solds are down year over year by 8%, whereas South Austin (South of 71, west of 35) sales are up by 3% year over year, this time. We still seeing three fourths of all active homes in South Austin sell in a month, so inventory remains very tight. With the slight increase in inventory south Austin is slowing down ever so slightly, but we are far from a 'normal' market.

Inventory to buy in Austin is still shrinking compared to last year and still by large margins. South Austin inventory is still increasing significantly. This shows that homes are appreciating in South Austin and people are selling to cash out their equity. And people are 2 out of 3 homes listed which is just a bit down from last month.


The Median Sales Price has increased substantially up 6.3% year over year in Austin ($427,000), and the South Austin median sales price is up 6.7% ($375,000)! The shrinking inventory in the rest of the city continues to cause prices to go up. Last month South Austin prices were flat year over year, but this month they jumped a lot. You can see the prices pushing up the further north you go in 78745. That wave will continue southward as long as inventory is limited.


National Market

A lot of buyers we have been working with lately are really concerned about how well their property will appreciate in the future. It is a great question. If you can buy in the right path, that can make a huge difference in the growth of your personal wealth. The national numbers from the major real estate institutions show a modest appreciation in the coming years. These are national numbers, so ask us about your neighborhood and we can give you very local data to see how it compares.

The optimism index reflects what Americans think their property values will do in the future. In general people are more optimistic than reality. There are two things interesting to note in this chart.

  1. Americans are more optimistic now than they have been in the past.

  2. There is more optimism about the appreciation of lower end and middle tier income groups. The wealthy are less optimistic than they have been before.

So depending on which market you are in, this is where the average buyer head space is in.

This year has been very interesting for mortgage rates. At the beginning of the year, nearly everyone expected them to go up from their already historically low levels. Surprisingly they went down in April. I just had a client get a mortgage at 3.375%! Personally I think rates will stay as low as they can reasonably keep them through at least the election in 2020. There is still an assumption that they have to go up in the future, but we've been proved wrong about that so far.

The Austin and South Austin market still remains very tight on inventory, so sellers are getting multiple offers if priced correctly. The only way this is going to change is with an increase in inventory which would require people to leave the city which is simply not happening, or inventory to increase faster than migration. Builders are adding about 3,600 new single family homes per year and 9,470 multi-family units. When you look at that compared to the approximate 50,000 people that move to Austin each year, the deficit is clear.


References:

Days on the Market, Seller Traffic, Buyer Traffic


https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index

Home Sales (Existing, Pending, New, Total, Distressed Property, Inventory, Supply)


http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Existing Home Sales, YOY Sales, % Change in Sales, Inventory, YOY Inventory, Supply


https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

Pending Home Sales, YOY Sales,


https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales

Existing Home Prices, % Change by Price Range


https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

Case Shiller Home Price Index


http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index

CoreLogic Home Price Insights


http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

Appraiser Home Value Opinions


https://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2019/05/14/average-appraisal-values-make-largest-monthly-jump-in-more-than-four-years-according-to-quicken-loans-study/

Foot Traffic


http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic

Mortgage Rates


http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20190515_steady_growth.page

https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-05-2019-us-economic-outlook-04-30-2019.pdf

Mortgage Credit Availability Index


https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom

FICO Scores, Days to Close, Average DTI


http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports

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